2024 – The Year of the Dragon
The Chinese zodiac (or Shengxiao) is a series of 12 animals that repeats in a set cycle. This zodiac reading is a long-term tradition that has existed for over 2000 years in China based on a famous myth – The Jade Emperor’s Race. Out of the 12 zodiac signs, the dragon is considered the most auspicious zodiac as it is often the symbol of power, strength, luck, and wisdom. Traditionally, the Year of the Dragon brings about a spike in the birth rate and schools even have to cater for larger cohorts of students.
However, 2024 has not started in this manner. According to Macrotrends.net, ‘The current birth rate for China in 2024 is 10.478 births per 1000 people, a 1.57% decline from 2023’. China has been experiencing this steady decline in its birth rate since the roll-out of its infamous one-child policy and its unforeseen aftermath on China’s economy and society is being steadily revealed.
The One-Child Policy
Back in 1979, the Chinese government imposed a policy unseen in our world – a one-child policy to control population growth. In pursuit of this policy objective, the government imposed financial penalties, limiting access to public services for families with more than two children, and, in severe instances, mandating sterilisations and abortions. Its central goal of slowing the population increase was effectively achieved and was estimated to have prevented around 400 million births. As Figure 1 shows, since the end of the 1970s, there have been continuous decreases in China’s birth rate.
However, the policy’s implementations were perhaps too successful and unintended effects were slowly presented in society. The first issue the policy brought about was an uneven distribution of the male-female ratio in the population where 116 boys are born for every 100 girls born – a ratio that surpasses the global ratio of roughly 107 boys to every 100 girls born. Historically, China had strong cultural preferences towards boys, meaning that families were more likely to abort girl fetuses as they were only allowed to have one child.
Secondly, China currently faces an aging population where too many Chinese citizens are heading into retirement. The nation is struggling to provide for the older population’s retirement with the current working population whilst maintaining strong economic growth, a large majority of senior citizens rely heavily on their children to care for them after retirement. In contemporary society, a significant proportion of elderly individuals find themselves in the circumstance of having only a single child. Consequently, couples in this demographic cohort encounter the formidable challenge of simultaneously tending to the needs of four elderly relatives while balancing demanding employment and raising their children.
Abolishing the one-child policy
On January 1st 2016, China officially announced its new law which allowed families to have two children, marking the end of its one-child policy. There was a small increase in the birth rate in 2016 to 1.772 births per woman and a further increase to 1.813 in 2018 but the Chinese population did not experience the surge in the birthrate that the government had hoped. From then onwards the birth rate continued to decrease further each year. These unpromising results led to the further loosening of the family planning policy in 2021 to allow families to have three children instead.
Why are the Chinese not having more children?
Now the big question is – why are the Chinese unwilling to have more children? Firstly, Chinese children face problems as soon as they begin their formal education. From long school hours to mountains of homework daily to the infamous ‘GaoKao’ (China’s university entrance exam) which determines one's future. The challenges of getting through the education system begin as young as daycare. The competition became so out of control that the government stepped in with a policy to ban private tutoring. With such a hypercompetitive academic environment, it is understandable why couples are reluctant to bring a child into a life destined for endless stress.
Secondly, according to Channel New Asia’s report, China is one of the costliest places to raise children. ‘The cost of raising a child until they are 18 relative to per capita GDP is around 6.3 times in China’, a drastic contrast to 2.08 times in Australia and 4.11 times in the US. To put that into perspective, YuWa Population Research Institute reported that ‘to raise a child in China till the age of 18 is about 538,000 yuan (US$74,600)’, this includes education, nanny fees, extracurriculars and general child care fees.
The last factor contributing to low birth rates is the inadequate support provided for mothers by employment, family and government. Having a child generally leads to a 12%-17% reduction in women's wages. Moreover, leisure time significantly decreases by 12.6 hours for mothers with one child aged 0-6 and falls by 14 hours with two children. This gender inequality cannot be solved overnight but change is desperately needed if the government wishes to encourage fertility.
So, will there be a baby boom in China in 2024?
The short answer is – no there most likely will not be. But what’s important is what the government needs to do to save itself from a rapidly aging population. Instead of relying on the superstitions of successful Dragon babies, the Chinese government must take action to resolve current challenges faced by women to promote increases in the birth rate. Whether the baby boom arrives is likely a question of time but the clock is ticking for China’s aging working population.
